Comments on Mumble

This comment was a response to Peter Brent's blog Mumble post "Voting intentions the only predictor".  May be I drifted a bit....

I must agree, the preferred PM poll is not as significant as those in the Howard government era pretended. However, Paul Keating is not a good example. I must have been the only one of my group to support Keating. Most Australian detested him. However, as Hewson found out the hard way (and as Howard nearly found out in 1998) unpopular polices like the GST can lose elections.

The figures that matters are not able to be polled. The key question is how willing is the voter to change their preferences. I am sure that many in Perth are rusted on to the Liberal Party. Even if Labor retains Husluck and pick up Canning, that would not have changed. That result would mean that the ALP holds a third of WA seats. The changing values in the public opinion polls suggest this is not the case in the rest of the country, especially Queensland and NSW. Given the popularity of the NSW Labor government, that is remarkable.

By the way, the cold weather in Perth might produce some electoral upsets in Perth. The new state Liberal-National government has increased the prices of electricity, therefore making house heating too expensive for social security income dependants or part time workers. Unlike NSW, the next WA state election is in 2012. They might want to send a message to the state Liberal government.